26/06/24
The following statement is in response to the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) Integrated System Plan, released today (26 June 2024).
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Yesterday on the floor of Parliament, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that Labor’s plan is the Integrated System Plan (ISP).
So here is what today’s release of the ISP tells us about Labor’s plan.
Firstly, the ‘total system cost’ of Labor’s plan remains a secret.
The tagline figure in the ISP on the cost of the plan is $122 billion but that excludes “the cost of commissioned, committed or anticipated projects, consumer energy resources, distribution network upgrades (p.73).”
The only ‘total system cost’ revealed to date comes from the Net Zero Australia study by Princeton University, the University of Melbourne and the University of Queensland, which estimated a similar renewables-only pathway to Labor’s at $1.2 trillion.
Australians are already paying among the highest prices for electricity in the world but, prices will soar higher still as these costs are added to power bills.
Secondly, it is Labor’s plan to force the premature closure of baseload power stations ahead of the planned closures which have been scheduled by the owners of the plants.
As a result, Australia will see 90% of its always-on 24/7 baseload power exit the grid over the next 10 years, without a replacement system ready to go.
The market operator is already asking companies to lower production this winter due to supply constraints and they are also warning of potential blackouts next Summer.
It will be ‘lights out Australia’ as a direct consequence of Labor’s plan.
Thirdly, Labor’s 82% renewables target is even more unachievable than previously thought.
To achieve its 82% renewables target, Labor now needs to install 7GW of renewable energy every single year, despite just 1.3GW reaching financial close in 2023.
AEMO says supply chain constraints alone may see the share of renewables come in at 62% (appendix 6, p.136).
Add price increases in materials, workforce shortages and social licence problems, 82% won’t be achieved.
AEMOs ISP is created under Australian energy laws and as AEMOs media release makes clear “those laws also set out what AEMO must address in the ISP. That includes government policies and targets.”
At the heart of the ISP lies Labor’s 82% renewables target.
Rather than Labor taking advice from the market operator, it’s the market operator which must assume that Labor’s targets are right.
The original source of Labor’s 82% target comes from the same Reputex modelling that predicted a $275 reduction in household power bills.
The 82% target is unachievable just like the $275 target, but Labor is refusing to accept reality, leaving AEMO no choice but to model ISP scenarios on the false promise of 82% renewables by 2030.
This ISP confirms that under Labor prices will soar and the light will go out.
ENDS
Contact: Ted O’Brien MP – Mitch Bland – 0401 257 064